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Design Strategies for Technology Adoption - Jump
27 May The Product Life Cycle is often mapped against the Consumer Adoption Curve ( one of the best known marketing frameworks). By doing this, we can . She will ask for recommendations from friends and family, read reviews online, go to the store to test out products, and so forth. This phase empowers both. 9 Aug As important as early adopters have been to the growth of the consumer electronics industries, adoption theory has relevance for every company. By understanding the needs of each group on the adoption curve, we can understand how to make an idea more appealing to different types of people. effects model of diffusion (imitation and innovation) and found that experience effects on price reduction sped up the rate of adoption. The focus of this paper is to estimate the experience curve effect on price and the resulting effect on household adoption of consumer electronics products. This paper improves upon previous.
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To get an idea of how rapid, I plotted a few other technologies and the time they took to grow within the US market. The time frame includes the expected lifespan of someone born in There is a lack of visibility or certainty among observers that anything worthy of inclusion on this graph will ever emerge. And yet, when glancing at this graph, it would seem that the addressable market, the rate of introduction of new technologies and the speed of adoption have all increased.
The area to the right of looks inviting to a plot of many lines. What browser and OS are you using? Clicking works for me on Chrome and Safari. Note that clicking on the graph opens the
Consumer electronics penetration curve image only, and that can be saved and viewed in an image editor.
I think that interactions with other people is where there is opportunity for change. Software is enabled by smartphones, but smartphone is the technology that is changing the world. Twitter seems made for mobile, but mobile is the breakthrough. I think the new interfaces will allow new hardware and that allow new software and new social interaction.
Well, drones, robotics, and 3-D printing and scanning are three likely technologies. Printing houses could be big. Those sound like desirable features e. Would not expect these to come into being until the end of this timeframe. I really think autonomous cars are the
Consumer electronics penetration curve big thing: In the graph, cars are the slowest adopted technology of them all.
And because they are expensive, there is a second hand market that is bigger than the market for new cars. It is going to take ages for self-driving cars to Consumer electronics penetration curve as common as people-driven ones. And remember, government income from speeding fines is going to disappear.
That by itself will mean that governments will want to slow down adoption as much as possible. Or add a tax to make up for that income. It may take Consumer electronics penetration curve very smart 25 year old who has been using a smartphone since they were 10 years old to come up with the next big thing — which will seem obvious to them. These are the whats; what about the whys? Certainly Apple thinks in giant market sectors firstly, not form but
Consumer electronics penetration curve, not things but events,
Consumer electronics penetration curve atoms but electrons.
Notice that no other technology on the graph is as straight a line as smartphone growth. The purest example of logistic growth in a technology so far! An extremely rapid rate of adoption would appear to fit almost ANY adoption curve that allowed for fast uptake. Very slow adoption so far but will reach a tipping point as oil becomes more scarce and as chargeable vehicles get longer range capacity.
I would imagine your thesis is at work in places like Japan where energy costs apply pressures, mostly due to constricted supply as you Consumer electronics penetration curve. Nuclear is the
Consumer electronics penetration curve one that could achieve that.
See for example nuclear loving France. Lowest demand is at 3 at night. I love rich information visualization and this is an excellent example of what is possible, thanks for posting this! I can spend a lot of time studying this for insight and thinking about the context, the social milieu, the stack of enabling technologies required and the cost of each technology. Two areas of interest occur to me. First, at what point does a technology pass from luxury to necessity? At some point indoor plumbing passed that threshold, is that true for all of these technologies?
Secondly, is it possible to encode the relative cost of these technologies here? Life is like arriving late for a movie, having to figure out what was going on without bothering everybody with a lot of questions, and then being unexpectedly called away before you find out how it ends.
The time span for innovators, early adopters, and early majority have clearly compressed in the last two Consumer electronics penetration curve. Will be watching the wearable market with great interest. Difficult to precisely pin attribution, but I do wonder to what degree the internet, social media, etc. I think it has more to do with price. Two important
Consumer electronics penetration curve for adoption rate is price and space needed, Modern electronics is
Consumer electronics penetration curve and uses almost no space so you get a fast adoption.
Other products that could be interesting to look at: Electric iron, vacuum cleaner, cassette player, pick ups both speedsdvd player. It would be interesting to distinguish visually between enabling technologies e. In mid it was Sent from my iPad. Interesting how the technologies with the most vertical trajectory highest adoption rate over shortest period of time are mostly communications related technologies, Radio, TV, Cell Phone, Smartphone.
Only the washer seemed to come close for a non-communications related technology. I think you mean the refrigerator thinner blueish line rocketing up not the washer thicker grey line stumbling a couple times. I think a great subset of this chart would be to plot the following: Would be interesting to see the interaction of drop off of legacy technologies as new ones that do the same job are introduced and grow.
I would put in the graph of future product innovation: As one who never argues with data, it seems for certain Buggles were wrong… Video did not kill the radio star.
So arguably, the tablet is just a new form factor of the PC, and the smartphone in its current form is a hybrid development of the personal computer and the cell phone, and not really a new product category. I would also question HDTV, which is an incremental development of a device to consume broadcast signals, and the adoption of which was driven by industry changeover of the delivered
Consumer electronics penetration curve from analog to digital, combined with the availability of high-resolution flat-screen technology which was common in computer displays.
You can say that about a lot of things — like, conventional ovens gas, electric, or flame and microwave ovens. And, yet, while overlapping, their separate and jobs-to-be-done is fairly separable.
Many people have one or the other, many have both; and they can be used separately, exclusively or in partnership. Yes, the technologies underlying a conventional oven and a microwave oven are different albeit electricity is the basic requirement for microwave ovensperhaps more than the technologies shared by the iPhone
Consumer electronics penetration curve the iPad. And there was earlier stuff: Psion Organizer, Atari Portfolio… if you insist on looking at it from the phone angle, the Nokia is from But as somebody who was looking longingly a better way to stay connected on the go than my kludgy setup a RAZR, maybe earlier a SE T68i, acting as an EDGE modem and connected via BlueTooth to my laptopthe Nokias of the time were a the best and b Not Acceptable Consumer electronics penetration curve to the clumsy screen handling.
I think this type of chart in any of these areas would give us insight in our
Consumer electronics penetration curve as citizens of our planet, a mere speck in space. What is next is Bitcoin. I know you have been dismissive on twitter of Bitcoin before, but consider this:. Bitcoin can perform most of the jobs to be done that the financial sector now does in disparate parts. It meet several criteria of a disruptive technology.
The only job a currency needs to do is to be liquid. As many liquid currencies exist, they are all good enough. Looking at financial systems, the last innovation in banking was the ATM. Most innovations in finance prior to that were Consumer electronics penetration curve in Amsterdam in the 17th century and for accounting in renaissance Venice.
Could you clarify the huge gap and high start point game console curve? Are your data incomplete for game console tech? The data for consoles is problematic because consoles have been in use in some from since the s.
That alone is a reason why fiat bitcoin type currencies are better. Fiat currencies are also more stable. I believe the next thing mass adoption consumer tech device is wearables.
It would be good to decide exactly what question we want to answer with this graph and then determine the criteria on which to add technologies. Where is the calculator, walkman, iPod, tape player, record player, cd player or home hi-fi? What happens to the graph and the story it tells when these are introduced? In addition to showing the inhibitors warsit might be useful to show accelerants: The availability of electric power allowed home appliances and entertainment to emerge.
A few things to note: The blue bars summarize the growth pulses and give a starting year and duration in years. Note some traumatic events are marked on the time frame. They partly explain innovation gaps or decreases in adoption. The life expectancy of Americans born from to is also shown as green bars.
This allows the reader to trace which technologies emerged during the lifetimes Consumer electronics penetration curve people they might have living memories of.
I overlaid one specific lifetime beginning in and color coded with Childhood, Adolescence, Higher Education, Work live and Retirement as a guide. You can how the PC emerged when Consumer electronics penetration curve person would have been in college.
Some technologies have not yet saturated and may never do so. It might be instructive to understand why. What will they see?
Indeed, for the canvas to remain blank would be the riskiest of bets.
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Innovation Adoption Curve
BlackRock's piece did have 3 charts to back up this point, and all are excellent, but I picked the one below, on the historical technology adoption curve for a selection of consumer technologies in the US over the last years or so.
I love this chart, have used a similar one in the past in some presentations I have done, and will happily steal this one in the future. As we can see from the data, in the last 15 years or so the technology adoption curves for some more recent tech innovations have become much, much steeper, almost vertical. It took the telephone maybe 50 years from its introduction to become almost universally adopted; more modern inventions like cell phones and PCs have taken maybe half as much time to reach similar adoption levels.
Technologies are becoming widely, almost completely adopted much faster than in the fairly recent past. And while that is noteworthy in itself, the nature of and how many of these technologies are being utilized for 'work' purposes is perhaps even more important.
Many of the older technologies like radio, television, and microwaves were mostly about personal, in-home usage, and primarily oriented around improving the quality of leisure time. But in the last 20 years or so technologies like cell phones, the internet, and tablets, while still all offering a 'leisure' set of capabilities, have also become essential work and productivity tools and platforms for most everyone.
So not only are modern technologies becoming adopted more rapidly, they also are more likely to begin as or at least evolve into tools for work, commerce, and productivity. We never really unless you worked directly in the industry , gained much income or market share or anything from watching more TV or listening to the radio in your car.
In fact, these technologies often took you away from 'work'. And that is not necessarily a bad thing. But now whether it is your iPhone, wifi everywhere, your 'work' Twitter account you use to share job openings at your company - today's technologies are as much about getting stuff done as they are about avoiding the things we ought to be doing.
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How would you cope if you were ugly ?Definition: The innovation adoption curve classifies the entry of users into various categories, based on their willingness to accept new technology or an idea. It is useful in breaking down or segregating consumers into five different segments or categories such as innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority, and. The technology adoption lifecycle is a sociological model that describes the adoption or acceptance of a new product or innovation, according to the demographic and psychological characteristics of defined adopter groups. The process of adoption over time is typically illustrated as a classical normal distribution or "bell..
That is the point of market diffusion. While that research tin can seem a bit elevated, it has profound real-world impacts proceeding how knowledge products afterwards services move adopted. Rife entrepreneurs as well as marketers file for chapter eleven to lay hold of into narrative that you must transfer from fist to perfectly in the adoption turn.
As a result, they drastically overrate their department store size furthermore how greatly work in addition to time wishes go hooked on getting a disruptive abstraction into the mainstream. The 5 Client Segments of Technology Assumption. Over years of probing, Rogers identified some attractive personality traits that expropriate us codify how associate will understand a in mint condition innovation.
It turns discernible we method innovations now the subsequent ways. Innovators are agreeable to stand risks, youngest in era, have the highest societal class Literate, have lofty financial clearness, very gathering and enjoy closest connection to technical sources after that interaction along with other innovators.
25 Nov Many people suggest that rates of new product introduction and adoption are speeding up, but is it really, across the board? The answer seems to be yes. An automobile industry trade consultant, for instance, observes that “Today, a typical automotive design cycle is approximately 24 to 36 months, which is. effects model of diffusion (imitation and innovation) and found that experience effects on price reduction sped up the rate of adoption. The focus of this paper is to estimate the experience curve effect on price and the resulting effect on household adoption of consumer electronics products. This paper improves upon previous. 16 Dec BlackRock's piece did have 3 charts to back up this point, and all are excellent, but I picked the one below, on the historical technology adoption curve for a selection of consumer technologies in the US over the last years or so. I love this chart, have used a similar one in the past in some presentations I.